NASDAQ · STOCK
Hilton Grand Vacations
$46.17
52W $36.79 – $55.40
50/100
$3.62B
38.8
1.51
Is HGV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.74 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 477.9% YoY — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.55 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 5.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− Debt-to-equity of 5.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 477.9% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.5 to 49.7.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 69->48 (-20); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 43->50 (+7).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.313
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$44.65
Resistance
$46.24
Bollinger %B
-0.04
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$48.98
Below
EMA 21
$49.76
Below
EMA 50
$49.68
Below
EMA 200
$46.64
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
58
Growth
32
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
38.8×
P/B Ratio
3.41×
PEG Ratio
-1.14
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$55.40
52W Low
$36.79
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.3%
ROA
0.7%
Gross Margin
59.0%
Operating Margin
8.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 38.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.4x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 3.62 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (5.18); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 10.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+80.0% -> -10.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 256.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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