NASDAQ · STOCK
Hilton Worldwide
$320.49
52W $253.54 – $358.00
49/100
$72.13B
46.6
1.05
Is HLT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.17 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.83 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 13.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 171.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 38.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 13.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -19.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 13.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.66 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 83%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 171.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 38.6x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -19.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 13.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.9 to 48.8.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
38.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.326
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$290.05
Resistance
$333.20
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$323.47
Below
EMA 21
$326.74
Below
EMA 50
$328.43
Below
EMA 200
$308.48
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
66
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
46.6×
P/B Ratio
-11.54×
PEG Ratio
10.22
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$358.00
52W Low
$253.54
Quality & Growth
ROE
-27.0%
ROA
8.7%
Gross Margin
44.1%
Operating Margin
23.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 46.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -11.5x; PEG ratio of 10.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.65 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.22; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (8.84); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth accelerating (-3.4% -> +13.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 4.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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