NASDAQ · STOCK
Harley-Davidson
$28.46
52W $17.09 – $31.25
59/100
—
15.4
1.27
Explore HOG Further
Is HOG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Harley-Davidson (HOG) Watch with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 12.4 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -9.8% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Daily uptrend conflicts with weekly downtrend — buying against the higher timeframe trend is higher risk.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 74.9 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (95.3) confirms overbought conditions.
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 8.5% downside vs 0.5% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -9.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.0 to 59.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.219
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$25.46
Resistance
$27.98
Bollinger %B
1.18
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$26.22
Above
EMA 21
$25.64
Above
EMA 50
$24.83
Above
EMA 200
$23.79
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
51
Profitability
0
Financial Health
91
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.4×
P/B Ratio
1.00×
PEG Ratio
-0.47
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$31.25
52W Low
$17.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
10.8%
ROA
4.2%
Gross Margin
24.9%
Operating Margin
6.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.91 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.72; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.40); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-178.7% -> +112.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 74.9 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (95.3) confirms overbought conditions.
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 8.5% downside vs 0.5% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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