NASDAQ · STOCK
Lennar
$82.35
52W $79.83 – $144.24
58/100
$20.45B
12.9
1.39
Is LEN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Lennar (LEN) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.30 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.70 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -7.5% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -7.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -47.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 21%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -7.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.5 to 57.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.133
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$81.22
Resistance
$95.97
Bollinger %B
0.22
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$84.06
Below
EMA 21
$84.97
Below
EMA 50
$87.13
Below
EMA 200
$98.66
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
42
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.9×
P/B Ratio
0.92×
PEG Ratio
-0.27
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$144.24
52W Low
$79.83
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.5%
ROA
6.0%
Gross Margin
8.0%
Operating Margin
6.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 4.66 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.39); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.1%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-51.8% -> +33.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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