NASDAQ · STOCK
Marriott International
$372.88
52W $253.76 – $410.98
50/100
$98.31B
39.1
1.11
Is MAR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marriott International (MAR) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.61 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.39 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 17.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 309.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 38.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 83.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 17.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 17.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.43 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 71%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 309.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 38.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 17.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 35 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.1 to 50.4.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.024
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$311.44
Resistance
$379.77
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$375.17
Below
EMA 21
$374.60
Below
EMA 50
$372.85
Above
EMA 200
$341.55
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
62
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
39.1×
P/B Ratio
-24.46×
PEG Ratio
4.72
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$410.98
52W Low
$253.76
Quality & Growth
ROE
-69.0%
ROA
9.4%
Gross Margin
21.4%
Operating Margin
16.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-4.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 39.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -24.5x; PEG ratio of 4.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.7%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 0.46 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -4.25; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (11.60); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.5%; EPS growth roughly steady (+4.5% -> +5.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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