NASDAQ · STOCK
McDonald's Corporation
$270.63
52W $260.96 – $341.75
47/100
$192.29B
22.2
0.42
Is MCD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.22 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.40 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 95.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.40) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.6 to 47.2.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.664
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.49
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$269.33
Above
EMA 21
$270.46
Above
EMA 50
$275.79
Below
EMA 200
$293.31
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Growth
47
Profitability
1
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.2×
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
3.25
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$341.75
52W Low
$260.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
-478.1%
ROA
14.4%
Gross Margin
57.4%
Operating Margin
46.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-42.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -149.6x; PEG ratio of 3.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -4.8%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 1.14 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -42.68; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (9.90); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (-3.1% -> -9.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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