NASDAQ · STOCK
Vail Resorts
$149.34
52W $118.51 – $165.50
48/100
$5.32B
34.5
0.72
Is MTN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vail Resorts (MTN) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.06 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -4.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 42.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 7.52 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -4.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -43.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 88%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 42.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 35.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
22
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -4.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.52) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.7 to 48.1.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->68 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.136
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$146.85
Resistance
$158.94
Bollinger %B
0.56
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$150.86
Below
EMA 21
$147.65
Above
EMA 50
$142.01
Above
EMA 200
$140.54
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
41
Growth
32
Profitability
1
Financial Health
5
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
34.5×
P/B Ratio
9.72×
PEG Ratio
-0.77
Dividend Yield
0.06%
52W High
$165.50
52W Low
$118.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
66.0%
ROA
4.9%
Gross Margin
55.5%
Operating Margin
24.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.90
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 34.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.7x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.7%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 0.91 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.90; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.61); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.7%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+212.9% -> +50.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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