NASDAQ · STOCK
Murphy USA
$608.53
52W $345.23 – $636.05
51/100
$11.23B
20.8
0.29
Is MUSA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Murphy USA (MUSA) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.61 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -1.2% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 89.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 12.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.50 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.50) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 89.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 12.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -1.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.50) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.1 to 50.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 74->70 (-3); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.362
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$503.44
Resistance
$636.02
Bollinger %B
0.56
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$610.76
Below
EMA 21
$600.65
Above
EMA 50
$577.88
Above
EMA 200
$502.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
59
Growth
53
Profitability
1
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.8×
P/B Ratio
17.09×
PEG Ratio
0.96
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$636.05
52W Low
$345.23
Quality & Growth
ROE
75.5%
ROA
10.0%
Gross Margin
5.5%
Operating Margin
4.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.1x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.8%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.08; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (29.99); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 41.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+11.4% -> -3.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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