NASDAQ · STOCK
NVR, Inc.
$6,162.59
52W $5501.01 – $8618.28
56/100
$16.59B
15.1
0.90
Is NVR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NVR, Inc. (NVR) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.74 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -10.1% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 31.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -18.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 33%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -10.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.4 to 55.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-30.954
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$5514.98
Resistance
$6913.90
Bollinger %B
0.04
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$6,335.88
Below
EMA 21
$6,400.46
Below
EMA 50
$6,421.13
Below
EMA 200
$6,822.26
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
82
Growth
39
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.1×
P/B Ratio
4.96×
PEG Ratio
-0.78
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$8618.28
52W Low
$5501.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
34.7%
ROA
22.9%
Gross Margin
22.2%
Operating Margin
14.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.0x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 3.38 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.31; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (449.40); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 7.6%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-44.2% -> +23.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -22.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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