NASDAQ · STOCK
O'Reilly Automotive
$89.34
52W $82.59 – $108.72
50/100
$74.05B
28.2
0.51
Is ORLY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.09 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 26 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 29.45) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 423.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 26 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 232.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 29.45 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -86.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 29.45) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 423.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -86.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 29.45) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 26 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.2 to 50.1.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.465
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$89.20
Resistance
$93.51
Bollinger %B
0.78
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$88.55
Above
EMA 21
$87.98
Above
EMA 50
$88.62
Above
EMA 200
$92.03
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
62
Growth
65
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.2×
P/B Ratio
-40.16×
PEG Ratio
2.20
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$108.72
52W Low
$82.59
Quality & Growth
ROE
-332.5%
ROA
15.3%
Gross Margin
51.6%
Operating Margin
19.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.2 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -40.2x; PEG ratio of 2.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -3.3%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 0.75 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.22; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (2.61); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.4% -> +19.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 10.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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