NASDAQ · STOCK
Penske Automotive Group
$217.32
52W $140.12 – $227.00
53/100
$14.29B
16.0
0.86
Is PAG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.51 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.49 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 39 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.99 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -1.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 74 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 84 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.99 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 28.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 16.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -1.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 74 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.99 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 39 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.6 to 53.5.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.165
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$214.98
Above
EMA 21
$204.90
Above
EMA 50
$190.65
Above
EMA 200
$172.49
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
65
Profitability
0
Financial Health
30
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.0×
P/B Ratio
2.45×
PEG Ratio
-2.91
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$227.00
52W Low
$140.12
Quality & Growth
ROE
16.8%
ROA
5.1%
Gross Margin
16.1%
Operating Margin
3.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.59
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of -2.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 0.98 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.59; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.26); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+7.8% -> +18.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -4.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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