NASDAQ · STOCK
Progressive Corporation
$211.37
52W $189.20 – $254.93
53/100
$122.92B
10.6
0.25
Is PGR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Progressive Corporation (PGR) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.53 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.47 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — p/e of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 20.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 53.5.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 71% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.626
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$199.90
Resistance
$214.52
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$214.18
Below
EMA 21
$214.92
Below
EMA 50
$212.22
Below
EMA 200
$215.18
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
46
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.6×
P/B Ratio
3.64×
PEG Ratio
0.86
Dividend Yield
0.07%
52W High
$254.93
52W Low
$189.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
37.3%
ROA
9.2%
Gross Margin
26.9%
Operating Margin
16.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.4%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 0.67 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (28.16); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.2% -> -2.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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