NASDAQ · STOCK
PulteGroup
$126.50
52W $108.49 – $144.50
59/100
$24.41B
12.9
1.19
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is PHM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates PulteGroup (PHM) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.08 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -7.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -26.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 12%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -7.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 53 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.0 to 59.1.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 60->64 (+4); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 69->59 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.074
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$116.36
Resistance
$131.34
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$128.71
Below
EMA 21
$127.93
Below
EMA 50
$126.07
Above
EMA 200
$123.58
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
50
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.9×
P/B Ratio
1.86×
PEG Ratio
-0.47
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$144.50
52W Low
$108.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
17.1%
ROA
12.3%
Gross Margin
24.5%
Operating Margin
14.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 5.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-30.1% -> +38.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -18.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full PHM Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →