NASDAQ · STOCK
Starbucks Corporation
$105.23
52W $77.99 – $109.23
49/100
$119.98B
60.5
0.97
Is SBUX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.82 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.18 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 8.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 115.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 60.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 64.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 8.07 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -25.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 80%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 115.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 60.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -25.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.6 to 49.2.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.136
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$93.76
Resistance
$108.86
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$104.58
Above
EMA 21
$104.27
Above
EMA 50
$103.01
Above
EMA 200
$97.31
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
84
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
60.5×
P/B Ratio
-15.69×
PEG Ratio
-2.42
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$109.23
52W Low
$77.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
-22.9%
ROA
5.8%
Gross Margin
31.8%
Operating Margin
9.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.92
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 60.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -15.7x; PEG ratio of -2.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 0.76 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.92; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (4.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-10.7% -> +70.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 39.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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