NASDAQ · STOCK
Toll Brothers
$145.88
52W $117.71 – $168.36
55/100
$13.64B
11.0
1.33
Is TOL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Toll Brothers (TOL) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.84 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.16 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — p/e of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 15.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.35 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- EPS declining -2.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 34%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -2.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.8 to 55.2.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
38.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.523
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$138.50
Resistance
$149.43
Bollinger %B
0.15
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$149.69
Below
EMA 21
$150.33
Below
EMA 50
$148.58
Below
EMA 200
$142.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
65
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.0×
P/B Ratio
1.64×
PEG Ratio
-5.32
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$168.36
52W Low
$117.71
Quality & Growth
ROE
16.3%
ROA
9.3%
Gross Margin
24.9%
Operating Margin
14.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.34
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of -5.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 4.07 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.34; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (12.77); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-52.2% -> +24.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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