NASDAQ · STOCK
Tractor Supply
$30.76
52W $28.36 – $62.89
53/100
$16.14B
16.0
0.46
Is TSCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Tractor Supply (TSCO) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -5.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.0 to 52.8.
- Conviction changed from high to unanimous.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 83% to 100%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.088
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$28.36
Resistance
$32.59
Bollinger %B
0.63
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$30.73
Above
EMA 21
$30.67
Above
EMA 50
$31.78
Below
EMA 200
$41.58
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
75
Growth
50
Profitability
1
Financial Health
23
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.0×
P/B Ratio
6.12×
PEG Ratio
-2.72
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$62.89
52W Low
$28.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
42.5%
ROA
10.0%
Gross Margin
32.5%
Operating Margin
8.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.1x; PEG ratio of -2.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.4%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.59); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.8%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-27.9% -> +161.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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