NASDAQ · STOCK
Chipotle Mexican Grill
$37.25
52W $28.04 – $44.27
54/100
$47.77B
34.2
0.96
Is CMG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 7 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.64 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 48.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 17.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -4.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 79 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 48.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 33.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 79 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.6 to 53.6.
- Conviction changed from high to unanimous.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 86% to 100%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->54 (+5); +2 bearish signal(s); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.320
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$36.80
Resistance
$37.74
Bollinger %B
0.91
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$35.00
Above
EMA 21
$34.22
Above
EMA 50
$33.58
Above
EMA 200
$36.10
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
41
Growth
69
Profitability
1
Financial Health
1
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
34.2×
P/B Ratio
21.80×
PEG Ratio
-9.65
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$44.27
52W Low
$28.04
Quality & Growth
ROE
54.3%
ROA
17.1%
Gross Margin
47.5%
Operating Margin
15.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 34.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 21.8x; PEG ratio of -9.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.5%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 0.72 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.46; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.22); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-4.0% -> +37.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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