NASDAQ · STOCK
Dollar General
$127.09
52W $95.11 – $158.23
55/100
$28.02B
17.9
0.25
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is DG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Dollar General (DG) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.15 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 21 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 15.1% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 18.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 34.9% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 26%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 18.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.9% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 21 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 60.1 to 55.1.
- High-conviction consensus weakened -- analysts became more divided.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 83% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 35.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.405
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$122.21
Resistance
$127.21
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$124.58
Above
EMA 21
$121.78
Above
EMA 50
$118.80
Above
EMA 200
$119.03
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
69
Profitability
0
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.9×
P/B Ratio
3.17×
PEG Ratio
0.50
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$158.23
52W Low
$95.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
17.8%
ROA
4.9%
Gross Margin
30.8%
Operating Margin
5.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.79
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.2x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.79; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (13.13); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+50.8% -> +3.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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