NASDAQ · STOCK
Dollar Tree
$127.13
52W $84.71 – $142.40
57/100
$24.45B
19.8
0.65
Is DLTR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Dollar Tree (DLTR) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.76 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 51.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 18%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 6.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 51.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.4 to 56.8.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.218
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$124.88
Resistance
$138.85
Bollinger %B
0.69
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$126.00
Above
EMA 21
$123.80
Above
EMA 50
$118.22
Above
EMA 200
$111.13
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
60
Profitability
1
Financial Health
23
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.8×
P/B Ratio
7.14×
PEG Ratio
0.12
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$142.40
52W Low
$84.71
Quality & Growth
ROE
34.2%
ROA
9.5%
Gross Margin
36.7%
Operating Margin
8.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.17
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.1x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.16 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.17; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+111.6% -> -32.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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