NASDAQ · STOCK
Estée Lauder Companies (The)
$83.80
52W $66.22 – $121.64
49/100
$30.34B
-123.4
1.26
Is EL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.38 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.62 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 18 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.89) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 18 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -6.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.89 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.89) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 82%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 7.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.89) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 18 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.7 to 48.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.329
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$83.20
Resistance
$84.25
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$83.35
Above
EMA 21
$83.00
Above
EMA 50
$83.20
Above
EMA 200
$87.35
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
35
Growth
69
Profitability
0
Financial Health
24
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-123.4×
P/B Ratio
7.62×
PEG Ratio
14.93
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$121.64
52W Low
$66.22
Quality & Growth
ROE
-29.3%
ROA
-5.7%
Gross Margin
73.4%
Operating Margin
7.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.33
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -123.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.6x; PEG ratio of 14.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.3%; Return on assets of -0.1%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.27 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.33; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.54); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 36.2%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+178.1% -> +2.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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