NASDAQ · STOCK
e.l.f. Beauty
$82.95
52W $48.82 – $150.99
50/100
$4.89B
179.7
2.39
Is ELF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.68 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 185.2 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.57 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 185.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- EPS declining -76.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 80%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 185.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -76.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.8 to 49.7.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.075
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$75.79
Resistance
$96.38
Bollinger %B
0.86
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$80.72
Above
EMA 21
$77.16
Above
EMA 50
$71.62
Above
EMA 200
$78.14
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
56
Profitability
0
Financial Health
92
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
179.7×
P/B Ratio
4.33×
PEG Ratio
-2.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$150.99
52W Low
$48.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
2.3%
ROA
1.1%
Gross Margin
70.7%
Operating Margin
8.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.81
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 179.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.3x; PEG ratio of -2.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 2.35 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.81; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.22); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+82.4% -> -74.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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