NASDAQ · STOCK
Hormel Foods
$25.01
52W $19.70 – $29.35
54/100
$13.76B
29.4
0.33
Is HRL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hormel Foods (HRL) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.53 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.47 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -37.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 34%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait
− P/E of 29.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -37.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.0 to 54.5.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 59->51 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.061
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$23.71
Resistance
$25.27
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$25.36
Below
EMA 21
$25.14
Below
EMA 50
$24.40
Above
EMA 200
$24.13
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
78
Profitability
0
Financial Health
97
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.4×
P/B Ratio
1.73×
PEG Ratio
-0.78
Dividend Yield
0.05%
52W High
$29.35
52W Low
$19.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.0%
ROA
3.6%
Gross Margin
15.7%
Operating Margin
5.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.4 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.94 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.36; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.26); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.0%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+6.3% -> +17.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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