NASDAQ · STOCK
Hershey Company
$174.94
52W $161.43 – $239.48
54/100
$35.51B
58.7
0.10
Is HSY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Hershey Company (HSY) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — news sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 44 articles, 14d) — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 23.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 44 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 32.5 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -40.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 23.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 32.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -40.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 44 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.0 to 53.5.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 56->44 (-12); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 55->68 (+13); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.955
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$168.70
Resistance
$193.29
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$177.07
Below
EMA 21
$176.52
Below
EMA 50
$180.05
Below
EMA 200
$188.08
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
35
Growth
70
Profitability
1
Financial Health
47
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
58.7×
P/B Ratio
7.62×
PEG Ratio
-0.97
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$239.48
52W Low
$161.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
19.1%
ROA
6.4%
Gross Margin
38.1%
Operating Margin
17.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 58.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.6x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.25; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (12.81); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 32.0%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+37.4% -> -19.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 57.0%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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