NASDAQ · STOCK
Altria Group Inc.
$68.28
52W $54.70 – $77.06
50/100
$114.07B
14.4
0.49
Is MO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Altria Group Inc. (MO) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.62 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.38 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 149.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -8.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.4 to 50.4.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 71% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 55->62 (+6).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 54->48 (-5).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
31.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.453
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.10
Resistance
$68.58
Bollinger %B
-0.02
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$71.55
Below
EMA 21
$71.99
Below
EMA 50
$71.46
Below
EMA 200
$67.05
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.4×
P/B Ratio
-42.81×
PEG Ratio
-1.70
Dividend Yield
0.06%
52W High
$77.06
52W Low
$54.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
-198.4%
ROA
19.8%
Gross Margin
71.0%
Operating Margin
56.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-9.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -42.8x; PEG ratio of -1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -2.0%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.44 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -9.21; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (4.97); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.5% -> +12.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 2.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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