NASDAQ · STOCK
Altria Group Inc.
$68.28
52W $54.70 – $77.06
48/100
$114.07B
14.4
0.49
Is MO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Altria Group Inc. (MO) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.56 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.44 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 149.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -19.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 52.0 to 48.4.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 69->54 (-15); +3 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +2 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
31.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.453
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.10
Resistance
$68.58
Bollinger %B
-0.02
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$71.55
Below
EMA 21
$71.99
Below
EMA 50
$71.46
Below
EMA 200
$67.05
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.4×
P/B Ratio
-42.81×
PEG Ratio
-1.70
Dividend Yield
0.06%
52W High
$77.06
52W Low
$54.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
-198.4%
ROA
19.8%
Gross Margin
71.0%
Operating Margin
56.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-9.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -42.8x; PEG ratio of -1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -2.0%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.44 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -9.21; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (4.97); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.5% -> +12.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 2.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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