NASDAQ · STOCK
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
$73.46
52W $60.29 – $141.74
52/100
$4.44B
18.0
0.47
Is OLLI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.80 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.20 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 54%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 46.4 to 52.2.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 50% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst, Risk Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->50 (+15).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 47->52 (+5); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->58 (+22); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 52->42 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: bullish at 62.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.312
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$73.31
Resistance
$75.26
Bollinger %B
1.05
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$69.74
Above
EMA 21
$69.46
Above
EMA 50
$73.68
Below
EMA 200
$92.95
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
92
Growth
49
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.0×
P/B Ratio
2.37×
PEG Ratio
0.75
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$141.74
52W Low
$60.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
12.7%
ROA
8.1%
Gross Margin
39.6%
Operating Margin
12.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 2.32 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.38; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.49); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth decelerating (+85.3% -> -34.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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