NASDAQ · STOCK
J.M. Smucker Company (The)
$119.34
52W $88.25 – $127.65
56/100
$12.75B
-91.7
0.25
Is SJM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.30 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.70 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -2.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait
− ROE of only -2.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 17 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.9 to 55.7.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.636
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$119.79
Below
EMA 21
$116.67
Above
EMA 50
$112.11
Above
EMA 200
$106.50
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
68
Profitability
0
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-91.7×
P/B Ratio
2.30×
PEG Ratio
-1.26
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$127.65
52W Low
$88.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2.5%
ROA
-0.9%
Gross Margin
33.5%
Operating Margin
4.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.28
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -91.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of -1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.0%; Return on assets of -0.0%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 0.78 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.28; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.84); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+13.3% -> +16.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full SJM Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →