NASDAQ · STOCK
Target Corporation
$144.51
52W $83.44 – $147.77
52/100
$65.62B
19.0
0.98
Is TGT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Target Corporation (TGT) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.86 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — roe of 21.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.94 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 21.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -16.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.94 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 60%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 21.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -16.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.94 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.5 to 51.9.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 64->60 (-4).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 51->59 (+8).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.651
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$132.64
Resistance
$145.05
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$141.76
Above
EMA 21
$138.48
Above
EMA 50
$133.77
Above
EMA 200
$120.35
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
82
Growth
54
Profitability
0
Financial Health
39
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.0×
P/B Ratio
4.00×
PEG Ratio
-1.13
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$147.77
52W Low
$83.44
Quality & Growth
ROE
22.9%
ROA
6.2%
Gross Margin
28.1%
Operating Margin
4.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.15
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.0x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 0.93 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.15; Free cash flow margin of 0.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 15.8%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+37.1% -> -29.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 0.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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