NASDAQ · STOCK
Travel + Leisure Co.
$75.91
52W $56.66 – $81.00
52/100
$4.66B
20.4
1.18
Is TNL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.94 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 7.81 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 121.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -36.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.81) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 30 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.3 to 51.9.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.099
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.93
Resistance
$78.12
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$75.70
Above
EMA 21
$75.04
Above
EMA 50
$73.56
Above
EMA 200
$69.13
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
70
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.4×
P/B Ratio
-4.65×
PEG Ratio
-0.56
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$81.00
52W Low
$56.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
-23.4%
ROA
3.4%
Gross Margin
45.2%
Operating Margin
15.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.60
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -4.6x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 3.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.60; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.95); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-20.8% -> +29.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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