NASDAQ · STOCK
United Parcel Service
$104.22
52W $82.00 – $122.41
53/100
$88.54B
19.3
1.03
Is UPS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates United Parcel Service (UPS) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.64 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.36 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.2% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -20.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 71%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -0.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.3 to 53.4.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
27.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-1.495
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$94.06
Resistance
$106.41
Bollinger %B
0.04
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$108.66
Below
EMA 21
$110.16
Below
EMA 50
$108.82
Below
EMA 200
$104.85
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
80
Profitability
1
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.3×
P/B Ratio
5.88×
PEG Ratio
-0.97
Dividend Yield
0.06%
52W High
$122.41
52W Low
$82.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
34.3%
ROA
7.6%
Gross Margin
16.6%
Operating Margin
7.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.67
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.9x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.67; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.45); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-55.0% -> +64.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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